Why Russia no longer fears or respects the West
London , United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland - 22 Apr 2018 - Ghassan Matar
The West is blinking in disbelief – Vladimir Putin just invaded Ukraine. German diplomats, French Eurocrats and American pundits are all stunned. Why has Russia chosen to gamble its trillion-dollar ties with the West, after all 60% of the wealth of Russians is held overseas? Western leaders are stunned because they haven’t realized Russia’s owners no longer respect Europeans the way they once did after the Cold War. Russia thinks the West is no longer a crusading alliance. Russia thinks the West is now all about the money.
Russia also believes that Western liberal democracies are leading their countries into multiple disastrous wars on false pretences, decisions that have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and brought untold suffering to millions. They also believe that these same democracies, the self-declared preachers of moral value, view these death with less moral consequence than committing adultery.
Putin’s henchmen know this personally. Russia’s rulers have been buying up Europe for years. They have mansions and luxury flats from London’s West End to France’s Cote d’Azure. Their children are safe at British boarding and Swiss finishing schools. And their money is squirrelled away in Austrian banks and British tax havens.
Putin is well aware that capital flight from Russia is now likely equal to the collective wealth of all Russian households, a trend that has helped to drive the country’s income inequality to extreme levels. In 2017, the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed in a paper being that the top 1 percent of Russians now hold up to 25 percent of the country’s wealth, a function of capital flight that has accelerated in recent years.
“There is as much financial wealth held by rich Russians abroad -- in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Cyprus, and similar offshore centres -- than held by the entire Russian population in Russia itself,” the report says.
Putin’s inner circle no longer fear the European establishment. They once imagined them all in MI6. Now they know better. They have seen first-hand how obsequious Western aristocrats and corporate tycoons suddenly turn when their billions come into play. They have also seen how MI6 and the CIA faked evidence to justify their war in Iraq and Afghanistan. More recently, with the Skripal case, they have witnessed these once powerful agencies play child games.
In short, they now view the Western elites as hypocrites—the same European elites who help them hide their fortunes. Once Russia’s powerful listened when European embassies issued statements denouncing the baroque corruption of Russian state companies. But no more. Because they know full well it is European bankers, businessmen and lawyers who do the dirty work for them placing the proceeds of corruption in hideouts from the Dutch Antilles to the British Virgin Islands.
We are not talking big money. But very big money. None other than Putin’s Central Bank has estimated that two thirds of the $56 billion exiting Russia in 2012 might be traceable to illegal activities. Crimes like kickbacks, drug money or tax fraud.
This is the money that posh English bankers are rolling out the red carpet for in London. Behind European corruption, Russia sees American weakness. The Kremlin does not believe European countries – with the exception of Germany – are truly independent of the United States. They see them as client states that Washington could force now, as it once did in the Cold War, not to do such business with the Kremlin.
When Russia sees Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal outbidding each other to be Russia’s best business partner inside the EU (in return for no mention of human rights), they see America’s control over Europe slowly dissolving.
Back in Moscow, Russia hears American weakness out of Embassy Moscow. Once upon a time the Kremlin feared a foreign adventure might trigger Cold War economic sanctions where it hurts: export bans on key parts for its oil industry, even being cut out of its access to the Western banking sector.
Russia sees an America distracted: Putin’s Ukrainian gambit was a shock to the U.S. foreign policy establishment. They prefer talking about China, or participating in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Russia sees an America vulnerable: in Afghanistan, in Syria and on Iran—a United States that desperately needs Russian support to continue shipping its supplies, host any peace conference or enforce its sanctions.
Moscow is not nervous. Russia’s elites have exposed themselves in a gigantic manner – everything they hold dear is now locked up in European properties and bank accounts. Theoretically, this makes them vulnerable. The EU could, with a sudden rush of money-laundering investigations and visa bans, cut them off from their wealth. But, time and time again, they have watched European governments balk at passing anything remotely similar to the U.S. Magnitsky Act, which bars a handful of criminal-officials from entering the United States. Russia knows that Europe's banks are a whisker away from insolvency.
All this has made Putin confident, very confident – confident that European elites are more concerned about making money than standing up to him. The evidence is there. After Russia’s strike force reached the outskirts of Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, in 2008, there were statements and bluster, but not a squeak about Russia’s billions.
After Russia’s opposition were thrown into show trials, there were concerned letters from the European Union, but again silence about Russia’s billions. The Kremlin thinks it knows Europe’s dirty secret now.
Putin is not an ideologue nor a reflection of a uniquely ruthless Russian leader. After all, Gorbachev, no fan of Putin’s, also supported the annexation of Crimea, as well as Russian military action in Georgia. The West, he wrote in his memoirs, had been “blind to the kind of sentiments NATO expansion aroused” in Russia.
Western leaders do not need to sympathize with Russia, but if they wish to make effective foreign policies, they do need to understand it. Communism may have vanished from Europe, but the region’s geography has not changed. Russia is, as it has always been, too large and powerful to embed within Western institutions without fundamentally changing them and too vulnerable to Western encroachment to acquiesce in its own exclusion.
The Kremlin thinks it has the European establishment down to a tee. The men who run Putin’s Russia see them like latter-day Soviet politicians.
Back in the 1980s, the USSR talked about international Marxism but no longer believed it. Brussels today, Russia believes, talks about human rights but no longer believes in it.
There is no doubt that Russia sees through the constant propaganda they spew on the mainstream press and sees a morally bankrupt West teeming with paedophilia, greed, corruption at every level of society, a society devoid of family, a society that has abandoned God and faith in all but name, a society that is deliberately dumbing down in population, a society that is knowingly poisoning its children while promoting homosexuality to children. Above all, it sees that the West’s living standard is but an illusion built on unfulfillable future promises backed by unpayable debts.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” – Sun Tzu
The reality is that Russia will never fear the West because it knows that it is really run by an elite with the morality of the hedge fund: Make money at all costs and move it offshore.